June 19th, 2010
From a Financial Times article dated February 9, 2005 (p. 15):
Research conducted by Professors Dimson, Marsh and Staunton of the London Business School, in association with ABN Amro, has found that there is no positive link between a country’s gross domestic product growth and future returns. And indeed there are some negative relationships.
The professors looked at 53 different stock markets over periods reaching 105 years. In no market was there a statistically significant link between previous GDP growth and future investment returns. In a second test, they ranked countries by their past GDP growth over five years, and then studied subsequent returns.
Investors would have earned 12 per cent a year by investing in the countries in the lowest growth quintile (bottom 20 per cent) but just 6 per cent in countries with the highest growth.
….
The evidence suggests that economists should listen to investors, rather than the other way round. In almost half the sample with 100 years of data, past returns have had a good correlation with future GDP growth. In other words, investors have correctly predicted economic booms.
Posted in Equities, Quotes | No Comments »
June 7th, 2010
I am recommending small long positions in BP and ADG.
I think the steady flow of negative news has caused BP’s stock price to overshoot to the downside. BP’s recent progress with its LMRP cap may turn things around.
From http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0714720620100607:
During the weekend, BP announced advances in controlling the undersea leak through a containment cap over the blown-out wellhead, giving estimates of captured oil that suggest a significant portion of the escaping crude is being collected.
There’s a lot not to like about ammunition manufacturer Allied Defense Group (ADG). It is losing money and it has received a “Going Concern” warning from its auditors. The company had been a takeover target (potential acquirer: Chemring Group PLC), but a DOJ indictment of a key executive responsible for much of its sales has scuttled the deal. However, the stock has dropped so much that the market cap is now only $23 mln, only about a third of the cost of this New Jersey mansion: http://wcbstv.com/local/million.dollar.mansion.2.1733780.html. I suspect that there may be substantial value in the intellectual property of the company and this value won’t be fully recognized until another major war breaks out.
I emphasize that long positions in these stocks should be small; ADG may well go bankrupt and the potential downside for BP is huge.
BP is currently quoted 37.72/37.73 and ADG is currently quoted 2.76/2.79.
Posted in Equities | No Comments »
May 26th, 2010
From Selling Money by S. C. Gwynne, pp. 59-60:
The commercial banks had zeroed in on foreign central banks largely in the absence of any other reliable reporting institution. As a colleague of mine observed later: “Who the hell else were you going to ask?” The only other possibility that came to mind was the U.S. embassy’s economic attaché, who was only slightly less bureaucratic and sheltered than the central-bank officials, and whose access to financial statistics was severely limited. The question remained: If you wanted accurate, up-to-date, inside knowledge of a country, who would provide it? The six o’clock news? Politicians? Religious leaders? Academics? Bankers? Businessmen? The answer – assuming you could get one at all – might involve a combination of all of those things, and that was patently impossible for someone with a business agenda as jammed as Herrick’s.
…..
They [Cleveland Trust's upper management] did not believe that the Wall Street Journal was a better intelligence source than five hundred conversations over tea with central bank officials, although this was often true…It cannot be said that Herrick retrieved bad information, which was delivered in other, more sophisticated forms, but that he brought back no information on the country’s political or social stability that could not be gotten from a reasonably well-staffed news service.
Posted in Quotes | No Comments »
May 17th, 2010
In his latest memo to investors (“Warning Flags“), Howard Marks writes
Investors have made a substantial move back in the direction of pre-crisis behavior. That behavior has to be recognized and monitored. The pendulum has moved away from the depression, panic, skepticism and excessive risk aversion we saw in the fourth quarter of 2008, and with the disappearance of those characteristics have gone the great bargain opportunities.
Investors have made a substantial move back in the direction of pre-crisis behavior. That behavior has to be recognized and monitored. The pendulum has moved away from the depression, panic, skepticism and excessive risk aversion we saw in the fourth quarter of 2008, and with the disappearance of those characteristics have gone the great bargain opportunities.
Posted in Quotes | No Comments »
April 27th, 2010
I am closing flattener recommendation #3 with a profit. Current yields:
2-year yield: 97 bps
10-year yield: 369 bps
2s-10s spread: 272 bps
Posted in Fixed Income | No Comments »
April 18th, 2010
Interest rates in Japan are remarkably low: 30-year JGBs currently yield 2.22% and 10-year JGBs yield 1.33%. In contrast, 10-year Treasuries yield 3.75% and 30-year Treasuries yield 4.66%, so 10-year Treasuries have 242 bps of yield advantage and 30-year Treasuries have 333 bps of yield advantage vs. JGBs.
Why are interest rates in Japan so low? The proximate cause is that Japan seems to be locked into post-bubble deflation. And why is that? Couldn’t Japanese monetary authorities simply do a helicopter drop of cash into the economy to defeat deflation?
In an April 15, 2010 Financial Times article, David Pilling writes:
Economically, and in spite of this week’s formation of a ruling-party faction that favours inflation-targeting, the country’s leaders nourish a fatalistic acceptance of deflation. True, 15 years of more or less continuously falling prices have not triggered the crisis some predicted. But falling nominal output has accelerated Japan’s relative economic decline.
…
Yet many Japanese seem more at ease with the idea of stately decline and genteel isolation. One of Japan’s most popular books in years, The Dignity of a Nation, even suggested Japan should stop teaching its children English and withdraw from the world trade system altogether. Short of such radicalism, many people ask what is wrong with being a backwater of wealth and civility in an out-of-kilter world.
…
For Japanese with jobs and access to savings, even deflation can be a boon. “We are just quietly enjoying our affluence,” says one satisfied customer.
David paints a picture of a sleepy, backwater Japan where people “with jobs and access to savings” are not particularly bothered by deflation.
USD/JPY is currently 92.06. YCS closed at 20.77 on Friday, April 16.
Posted in FX | No Comments »
April 5th, 2010
On March 2, 2010, I wrote: “I think 2-year notes yields will go higher (2-year note prices will go lower)…Right now, 2-year notes yield 81 bps. I think we’ll see 2-year note yields rise at least 20 bps within six months. Recommendation: short 2-year notes (or sell 2-year note futures).”
2-year notes now yield 117 bps. This is an increase of 36 bps in a little more than a month. I am closing my short 2-year notes recommendation now. Note that this was a different trade idea than the flattener trade idea – the flattener is a bet on the slope of the yield curve, while this was a bet on the level of interest rates. My third flattener recommendation is still open.
The flattener trade involves shorting 2-year notes and also going long 10-year notes, so a trader who implemented both my flattener recommendation and my short 2-year notes recommendation would have overlaid one short position in 2-year notes on top of another.
Posted in Fixed Income | No Comments »
March 25th, 2010
I am recommending a 2s-10s flattener a third time. Currently:
2-year yield: 109 bps
10-year yield: 386 bps
2s-10s spread: 277 bps
I recommended the first flattener on Feb 9 at 282 bps and closed the recommendation on March 5 at 276 bps. I recommended the second flattener on Mar 8 at 283 bps and closed the recommendation on Mar 12 at 274 bps.
FX Update:
I recommended buying USD/JPY on Mar 3, 2010 when USD/JPY was 88.72. Right now, USD/JPY is 92.80. This trade idea could also be implemented by buying the ETF YCS. YCS was 19.31 on Mar 3; it is now 21.10.
Posted in FX, Fixed Income | No Comments »
March 13th, 2010
From a Bloomberg article (archived here:
http://www.feedcry.com/archive/aid/609273?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+fulltext/Bloomberg+(Bloomberg)
):
Wisconsin Experiment
That’s when the scene shifts to Wisconsin, where HBO was running an experiment in Milwaukee and Green Bay. HBO was letting people watch its programming online as long as they could prove they were subscribers.
The results of the test were unexpected: Viewers who tuned into “Big Love” on their laptops didn’t spend any less time watching HBO on their TV sets. Bewkes was buoyed by the possibility that the same model might work more widely and that his cable properties might be able to keep subscribers from gravitating elsewhere, says a Time Warner executive involved in the discussions.
Bewkes told his team: “We can’t just talk about it, or play the victim. We need to build a model,” the executive recalls.
“We can’t just talk about it, or play the victim. We need to build a model.” In the original context, this quote deals with the threat to cable TV from the Internet. However, this inspirational wisdom is quite generic – we can apply it to other situations as well.
Posted in Quotes | No Comments »
March 12th, 2010
2-year yield: 96 bps
10-year yield: 370 bps
2s-10s spread: 274 bps
I’m closing the flattener recommendation I initiated on March 8, when the 2s-10s spread was 283 bps. Previously, I recommended a flattener on Feb 9 at 282 bps and closed it on March 5 at 276 bps.
Posted in Fixed Income | No Comments »